Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo: http://hdl.handle.net/10451/25379
Título: Solar energy potential in a changing climate : Iberia and Azores assessment combining dynamical and statistical downscaling methods
Autor: Magarreiro, Clarisse de Lurdes Chapa, 1983-
Orientador: Brito, Miguel Centeno
Soares, Pedro Miguel Matos, 1972-
Palavras-chave: Energias renováveis
Recursos energéticos
Sol
Sustentabilidade
Península Ibérica
Arquipélago dos Açores (Portugal)
Teses de doutoramento - 2016
Data de Defesa: 2016
Resumo: The proper characterization of solar radiation resource is essential for the design of any solar energy harnessing systems which aims its optimal performance. To this end, the solar resource is often quantified through solar radiation measurements at meteorological stations. Unfortunately radiation data recorded on the desired location is often inexistent. Furthermore, the actual existing solar radiation databases have also a limited temporal span and, more frequently than desired, missing values and non-uniform formats. Also, such databases consist almost entirely of global solar radiation; variables such as the nature of the solar energy (direct or diffuse) are rarely recorded. Atmospheric models can add value to solar energy applications by enabling solar resource assessments as they easily overcome the limited spatial and temporal coverage of irradiance measuring networks. Furthermore, climate models can be used for any region of the planet to assess the solar resource for not only present climate conditions but also to analyse its long-term past evolution and future tendency. Nowadays such models are a popular approach on the field of solar radiation forecasting but the quality evaluation of the solar radiation representation by such models is first of all a fundamental step to understand its usefulness. Having this in mind, in this thesis, a dynamical downscaling approach is used to evaluate simulated solar radiation at the Earth’s surface which will then enable the characterization of the solar resource. The model output is also combined with a statistical downscaling approach used in its simplest form to minimize the model biases. The work focuses primarily in the Iberian Peninsula as its large climate gradients are representative of diverse meteorological conditions, enabling therefore the adaptation of the presented methods to other regions. Then, following the same methodology, the solar resource of the Azores archipelago is also addressed. The Azores region is often neglected in solar resource assessments and solar resource maps of the Earth’s surface or even of Europe region. These methods are used to characterize the present climate renewable solar resource and analyse the impact of climate change on its projections for the end of the 21st century for both Iberia Peninsula and Azores archipelago. Atmospheric numerical models are however limited in the sense that they only provide global solar radiation, the direct normal radiation and diffuse components are not common outputs to the user. Given this, the separation of global radiation into its diffuse and direct components is analysed in this thesis through models of diffuse solar radiation fraction. One important characteristic of these models is that they are empirically derived from site-specific measurements and a model developed and validated in a very specific climate type region may not hold its suitability to other regions. This thesis focuses on the assessment of such models only for the Azores region which has not been object of this type of analysis before.
Descrição: Tese de doutoramento, Sistemas Sustentáveis de Energia, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10451/25379
Designação: Doutoramento em Sistemas Sustentáveis de Energia
Aparece nas colecções:FC - Teses de Doutoramento

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