Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo: http://hdl.handle.net/10451/28324
Título: The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540: a worst case
Autor: Wetter, Oliver
Pfister, Christian
Werner, Johannes P.
Zorita, Eduardo
Wagner, Sebastian
Seneviratne, Sonia I.
Herget, Jürgen
Grünewald, Uwe
Luterbacher, Jürg
Alcoforado, Maria Joao
Barriendos, Mariano
Bieber, Ursula
Brázdil, Rudolf
Burmeister, Karl H.
Camenisch, Chantal
Contino, Antonio
Dobrovolný, Petr
Glaser, Rüdiger
Himmelsbach, Iso
Kiss, Andrea
Kotyza, Oldřich
Labbé, Thomas
Limanówka, Danuta
Litzenburger, Laurent
Nordl, Øyvind
Pribyl, Kathleen
Retsö, Dag
Riemann, Dirk
Rohr, Christian
Siegfried, Werner
Söderberg, Johan
Spring, Jean-Laurent
Palavras-chave: Heat waves
climate models
Data: 2014
Editora: Springer Verlag
Citação: Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Werner, J.P. et al. Climatic Change (2014) 125: 349. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2
Resumo: The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.
Peer review: yes
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10451/28324
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2
ISSN: 0165-0009
Aparece nas colecções:IGOT - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais

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